Valoração do custo social do carbono e análise da produção de carne e emissão de gases de efeito estufa: o Brasil tem condições de cumprir as metas estabelecidas da contribuição nacionalmente determinada?
Data
2023-04-27
Autores
Costa, Mariana Vieira da [UNIFESP]
Orientadores
Miraglia, Simone Georges El Khouri [UNIFESP]
Tipo
Dissertação de mestrado
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Resumo
O Acordo de Paris tem como principal objetivo limitar o aumento da temperatura média global entre 2 e 1,5ºC. Em 2020, o Brasil reafirmou o compromisso estabelecido em sua Contribuição Nacionalmente Determinada (NDC), cuja meta é reduzir em 43% as emissões de GEE até 2030, tomando as emissões de 2005 como base. Em 2021, o setor agropecuário foi responsável por 25% das emissões de CO2e no Brasil, sendo o gado de corte responsável por 65% do total desse setor. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a associação entre as emissões de GEE do gado de corte e a produção de carne bovina, bem como valorar essas emissões e discutir o impacto da produção de carne bovina no cumprimento das metas estabelecidas na NDC. Para embasar a elaboração da pesquisa e a análise dos resultados, fez-se uma revisão sistematizada na literatura sobre os impactos ambientais da produção agropecuária e as soluções de mitigação. As análises estatísticas utilizadas para atingir os objetivos propostos foram a análise descritiva temporal (2000-2020), Teste de Correlação de Pearson (p > 0,01) e Regressão Linear das variáveis emissão de GEE do gado de corte e produção de carne bovina. Adiante, calculamos e buscamos na literatura o indicador das duas variáveis para desenvolver os cenários preditivos do estudo, sendo eles: estimar o quanto a produção de carne bovina irá emitir em 2030, estimar a produção máxima de carne bovina para que a NDC seja cumprida, e o potencial impacto no mercado interno brasileiro de carne bovina. Por fim, valorou-se a emissão de GEE, por meio do Custo Social Do Carbono, emitido pela produção de carne bovina em 2030. A revisão sistematizada apontou que, entre as ações potencialmente eficazes em reduzir as emissões de GEE da pecuária, destacam-se intensificar a produção agropecuária, restaurar pastos degradados e reflorestar áreas desmatadas. Os resultados mostraram que a produção business as usual (BAU) de carne bovina emitirá entre 0,423 e 0,634 GtCO2e em 2030, valores esses 1,6 e 2,5 vezes acima do limite máximo de emissão para cumprir a NDC brasileira. Por outro lado, limitar a produção de carne bovina para que as metas da NDC sejam cumpridas pode ser uma oportunidade de reduzir entre US$ 18,8 e 42,6 bilhões no custo das emissões BAU da carne bovina. Coletivamente, os resultados permitem concluir que, partindo da premissa de que as metas da NDC precisam ser cumpridas, são necessárias modificações na produção pecuária de forma a emitir menos CO2e por kg de carne bovina. Alternativamente, a solução seria reduzir drasticamente a produção de carne bovina, impactando diretamente na alimentação da população brasileira.
The Paris Agreement has the main goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature between 2 and 1.5°C. In 2020, Brazil ratified the commitment established in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which aims to reduce GHG emissions by 43% until 2030, taking 2005 emissions as a base-year. In 2021, the agricultural sector was responsible for 25% of CO2e emissions in Brazil, with beef cattle accounting for 65% of the total of this sector. The present work aimed to evaluate the association between beef cattle’ GHG emissions and beef production, as well as value these emissions and discuss the impact of beef production on meeting the targets established in the NDC. To support the research development and the results analysis, we conducted a systematized review of the literature on the environmental impacts of agricultural production and the mitigation solutions. The statistical analysis used to achieve the proposed objectives were a temporal (2000-2020) descriptive analysis, Pearson's Correlation Test (p > 0.01) and Linear Regression of the variables beef cattle’s GHG emission and beef production. Then, we calculated and reviewed the literature for the variables index value to develop the study's predictive scenarios, namely: estimate beef production’ emissions in 2030, estimate the maximum beef production so that the NDC is fulfilled, and the potential impact on the Brazilian domestic beef market. Finally, we valued the GHG emitted by the beef production in 2030 using the Social Cost of Carbon. The systematized review showed that, among the actions with potential efficiency in reducing GHG emissions from livestock production, stands out intensifying agricultural production, restoring degraded pastures and reforesting deforested areas. The results showed that business as usual (BAU) beef production will emit between 0.423 and 0.634 GtCO2e in 2030, which is 1.6 to 2.5 times above the maximum GHG emission limit to meet the NDC goals. In contrast, limiting beef production in order to achieve the NDC goals could to be an opportunity to reduce between US$ 18.8 and 42.6 billion of beef’s GHG emissions BAU scenario costs. Collectively, the results allow to conclude that, based on the premise that the NDC targets need to be met, changes are needed in livestock production in order to emit less CO2e per kg of beef. Alternatively, the solution would be to reduce drastically the production of beef, directly affecting the Brazilian population dietary habits but also avoiding monetary expenses due to GHG emission reduction.
The Paris Agreement has the main goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature between 2 and 1.5°C. In 2020, Brazil ratified the commitment established in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which aims to reduce GHG emissions by 43% until 2030, taking 2005 emissions as a base-year. In 2021, the agricultural sector was responsible for 25% of CO2e emissions in Brazil, with beef cattle accounting for 65% of the total of this sector. The present work aimed to evaluate the association between beef cattle’ GHG emissions and beef production, as well as value these emissions and discuss the impact of beef production on meeting the targets established in the NDC. To support the research development and the results analysis, we conducted a systematized review of the literature on the environmental impacts of agricultural production and the mitigation solutions. The statistical analysis used to achieve the proposed objectives were a temporal (2000-2020) descriptive analysis, Pearson's Correlation Test (p > 0.01) and Linear Regression of the variables beef cattle’s GHG emission and beef production. Then, we calculated and reviewed the literature for the variables index value to develop the study's predictive scenarios, namely: estimate beef production’ emissions in 2030, estimate the maximum beef production so that the NDC is fulfilled, and the potential impact on the Brazilian domestic beef market. Finally, we valued the GHG emitted by the beef production in 2030 using the Social Cost of Carbon. The systematized review showed that, among the actions with potential efficiency in reducing GHG emissions from livestock production, stands out intensifying agricultural production, restoring degraded pastures and reforesting deforested areas. The results showed that business as usual (BAU) beef production will emit between 0.423 and 0.634 GtCO2e in 2030, which is 1.6 to 2.5 times above the maximum GHG emission limit to meet the NDC goals. In contrast, limiting beef production in order to achieve the NDC goals could to be an opportunity to reduce between US$ 18.8 and 42.6 billion of beef’s GHG emissions BAU scenario costs. Collectively, the results allow to conclude that, based on the premise that the NDC targets need to be met, changes are needed in livestock production in order to emit less CO2e per kg of beef. Alternatively, the solution would be to reduce drastically the production of beef, directly affecting the Brazilian population dietary habits but also avoiding monetary expenses due to GHG emission reduction.