Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers

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dc.citation.issue2
dc.citation.volume78
dc.contributor.authorLopez, Luis Fernandez
dc.contributor.authorAmaku, Marcos
dc.contributor.authorCoutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
dc.contributor.authorQuam, Mikkel
dc.contributor.authorBurattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP]
dc.contributor.authorStruchiner, Claudio Jose
dc.contributor.authorWilder-Smith, Annelies
dc.contributor.authorMassad, Eduardo
dc.coverageNew York
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-30T18:46:21Z
dc.date.available2020-10-30T18:46:21Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractThis paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease importation), susceptible individuals travel from their disease-free home country to the endemic country and come back after some weeks. The risk of infection spreading in their home country is then estimated supposing the visitors are submitted to the same force of infection as the local population but do not contribute to it. In the second model (disease exportation), it is calculated the probability that an individual from the endemic (or epidemic) country travels to a disease-free country in the condition of latent infected and eventually introduces the infection there. The input of both models is the force of infection at the visited/source country, assumed known. The models are deterministic, but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented as an appendix. The models are exemplified with two distinct real situations: the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to the USA.en
dc.description.affiliationUniv Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationFlorida Int Univ, CIARA, Miami, FL 33199 USA
dc.description.affiliationUmea Univ, Epidemiol & Global Hlth, Umea, Sweden
dc.description.affiliationHosp Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationFiocruz MS, PROCC, BR-21045900 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationLee Kong Chian Sch Med, Nanyang, Singapore
dc.description.affiliationTechnol Univ, Singapore, Singapore
dc.description.affiliationLondon Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1, England
dc.description.affiliationUnifespHosp Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
dc.description.sourceWeb of Science
dc.description.sponsorshipHSP/UNIFESP
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPESP
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Health (Fundo Nacional de Saude)
dc.description.sponsorshipDengueTools
dc.description.sponsorshipIDMinistry of Health Fundo Nacional de Saude: 27835/2012
dc.description.sponsorshipIDDengueTools: 282589
dc.description.sponsorshipIDLIM01-HCFMUSP
dc.format.extent185-209
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z
dc.identifier.citationBulletin Of Mathematical Biology. New York, v. 78, n. 2, p. 185-209, 2016.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z
dc.identifier.issn0092-8240
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/58441
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000371244900001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofBulletin Of Mathematical Biology
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectInfectious disease importationen
dc.subjectInfectious disease exportationen
dc.subjectTravelersen
dc.subjectModelingen
dc.subjectRisken
dc.titleModeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelersen
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
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