Critical interpretation of Cochran's Q test depends on power and prior assumptions about heterogeneity

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dc.contributor.authorPereira, Tiago V. [UNIFESP]
dc.contributor.authorPatsopoulos, Nikolaos A.
dc.contributor.authorSalanti, Georgia
dc.contributor.authorIoannidis, John P. A.
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
dc.contributor.institutionUniv Ioannina
dc.contributor.institutionHarvard Univ
dc.contributor.institutionFdn Res & Technol Hellas
dc.contributor.institutionTufts Univ
dc.contributor.institutionStanford Univ
dc.date.accessioned2016-01-24T13:59:29Z
dc.date.available2016-01-24T13:59:29Z
dc.date.issued2010-04-01
dc.description.abstractWe describe how an appropriate interpretation of the Q-test depends on its power to detect a given typical amount of between-study variance (tau(2)) as well as prior beliefs on heterogeneity. We illustrate these concepts in an evaluation of 1011 meta-analyses of clinical trials with >= 4 studies and binary outcomes. These concepts can be seen as an application of the Bayes theorem. Across the 1011 meta-analyses, power to detect typical heterogeneity was low in most situations. Thus, usually a non-significant Q test did not change perceptibly prior convictions on heterogeneity. Conversely, significant results for the Q test typically augmented considerably the probability of heterogeneity. the posterior probability of heterogeneity depends on what tau(2) we want to detect. With the same approach, one may also estimate the posterior probability for the presence of heterogeneity that is large enough to annul statistically significant summary effects; that is half the average within-study variance of the combined studies; and that is able to change the summary effect estimate of the meta-analysis by 20%. the discussed analyses are exploratory, and may depend heavily on prior assumptions when power for the Q-test is low. Statistical heterogeneity in meta-analyses should be cautiously interpreted considering the power to detect a specific tau(2) and prior assumptions about the presence of heterogeneity. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.en
dc.description.affiliationHeart Inst InCor, Lab Genet & Mol Cardiol, BR-05403000 São Paulo, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Biochem & Mol Biol, BR-05403000 São Paulo, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUniv Ioannina, Sch Med, Dept Hyg & Epidemiol, Clin & Mol Epidemiol Unit, GR-45110 Ioannina, Greece
dc.description.affiliationHarvard Univ, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Sch Med, Dept Med,Div Genet, Boston, MA 2115 USA
dc.description.affiliationFdn Res & Technol Hellas, Biomed Res Inst, Ioannina 45110, Greece
dc.description.affiliationTufts Univ, Sch Med, Tufts Clin & Translat Sci Inst, Boston, MA 02111 USA
dc.description.affiliationTufts Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Genet Epidemiol & Modeling, Tufts Med Ctr,Inst Clin Res & Hlth Policy Studies, Boston, MA 02111 USA
dc.description.affiliationTufts Univ, Sch Med, Dept Med, Boston, MA 02111 USA
dc.description.affiliationStanford Univ, Sch Med, Stanford Prevent Res Ctr, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
dc.description.affiliationUnifespUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Biochem & Mol Biol, BR-05403000 São Paulo, Brazil
dc.description.sourceWeb of Science
dc.description.sponsorshipWood-Whelan research fellowship for a short-term visit at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology at the University of Ioannina
dc.description.sponsorshipPENED training grant from the European Union Social Fund
dc.description.sponsorshipGreek Ministry of Development, General Secretariat of Research and Technology
dc.format.extent149-161
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.13
dc.identifier.citationResearch Synthesis Methods. Hoboken: Wiley-Blackwell, v. 1, n. 2, p. 149-161, 2010.
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/jrsm.13
dc.identifier.issn1759-2879
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/32400
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000209380400005
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwell
dc.relation.ispartofResearch Synthesis Methods
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.licensehttp://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-406071.html
dc.subjectheterogeneityen
dc.subjectQ testen
dc.subjectBayes theoremen
dc.subjectpower analysisen
dc.subjectmeta-analysisen
dc.titleCritical interpretation of Cochran's Q test depends on power and prior assumptions about heterogeneityen
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
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