The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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dc.citation.volume16
dc.contributor.authorXimenes, Raphael
dc.contributor.authorAmaku, Marcos
dc.contributor.authorLopez, Luis Fernandez
dc.contributor.authorCoutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
dc.contributor.authorBurattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP]
dc.contributor.authorGreenhalgh, David
dc.contributor.authorWilder-Smith, Annelies
dc.contributor.authorStruchiner, Claudio Jose
dc.contributor.authorMassad, Eduardo
dc.coverageLondon
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-22T13:23:05Z
dc.date.available2020-07-22T13:23:05Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractBackground: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. Methods: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. Conclusions: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.en
dc.description.affiliationUniv Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationHCFMUSP LIM01, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationFlorida Int Univ, Ctr Internet Augmented Res & Assessment, Miami, FL 33199 USA
dc.description.affiliationUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUniv Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
dc.description.affiliationNanyang Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore, Singapore
dc.description.affiliationFundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Programme Sci Computat, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationLondon Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1, England
dc.description.affiliationUnifespUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
dc.description.sourceWeb of Science
dc.description.sponsorshipLIM01-HCFMUSP
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPESP
dc.description.sponsorshipBrazilian Ministry of Health (Fundo Nacional de Saude)
dc.description.sponsorshipDengue Tools under the Health theme of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community
dc.description.sponsorshipLeverhulme Trust Research Fellowship
dc.description.sponsorshipIDCNPq: 300981/2014-7
dc.description.sponsorshipIDFAPESP: 2012/18463-4
dc.description.sponsorshipIDMS: 777588/2012
dc.description.sponsorshipIDDengue Tools: 282589
dc.description.sponsorshipIDLeverhulme: RF-2015-88
dc.format.extent-
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-016-1517-z
dc.identifier.citationBmc Infectious Diseases. London, v. 16, p. -, 2016.
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12879-016-1517-z
dc.identifier.fileWOS000375080600001.pdf
dc.identifier.issn1471-2334
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/56032
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000375080600001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherBiomed Central Ltd
dc.relation.ispartofBmc Infectious Diseases
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectDengueen
dc.subjectMathematical modelsen
dc.subjectRisk assessmenten
dc.subjectOlympic gamesen
dc.subjectTravel medicineen
dc.titleThe risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazilen
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
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