Metamodelagem da estimativa da probabilidade de uma bateria antiaérea destruir uma aeronave de ataque em função da distância
Data
2022-01-26
Autores
Duarte, Gieser Augusto Rauber [UNIFESP]
Orientadores
Scarpel, Rodrigo Arnaldo
Tipo
Dissertação de mestrado
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Resumo
A perda de aeronaves em missões de ataque a alvos em solo continua sendo a forma predominante de atrito em operações aéreas militares, tendo correspondido por quatro quintos das aeronaves perdidas na Guerra do Golfo em 1990. Diversas potências militares buscam a mitigação destas perdas, por meio do desenvolvimento e aperfeiçoamento de táticas de combate através da pesquisa operacional, especialmente após o advento das aeronaves de ataque não-tripuladas. Neste contexto, este trabalho debruça-se sobre o tema da penetração de dispositivos de defesa compostos por baterias antiaéreas de cano por aeronaves de ataque, buscando complementar o método desenvolvido por Scarpel e Duarte (2019), cujo método se propunha a mapear o risco ao redor do dispositivo defensivo, permitindo assim a otimização do ataque, em termos da escolha da direção de ataque e formação de voo das aeronaves. Assim, no presente trabalho foi construído um metamodelo representativo de uma função que estima a probabilidade de uma aeronave de ataque ser abatida por uma bateria antiaérea, em função de sua distância à bateria e altura de voo em relação ao solo. O cenário tático foi implementado num software desenvolvido para simulação militar FLAMES. Foi criado um projeto para o experimento computacional, selecionando os pontos a serem simulados, em termos de distância e altura de voo, escolhidos através da técnica de space filling hiper cubo latino. Após a execução do experimento os dados brutos foram processados e alguns pontos verificados em termos da convergência da média da frequência da letalidade, para ajuste do número de rodadas executadas de simulação. Após a obtenção dos resultados do experimento computacional, 70% dos dados processados foram utilizados para executar uma interpolação matemática via Kriging e Natural Neighbour Interpolation para obtenção do metamodelo, o qual foi depois avaliado com os 30% dos dados restantes para verificação da qualidade do ajuste do metamodelo obtido.
Aircraft loss in ground attack missions remains the predominant form of attrition in military air operations, accounting for four-fifths of aircraft losses in the 1990 Gulf War. Several military powers seek to mitigate these losses through development and improvement of combat tactics by employing operational research techniques, especially after the advent of unmanned attack aircraft. In this context, this work focuses on the issue of penetration of defensive zones composed of anti-aircraft guns by attack aircraft, seeking to complement the method developed by Scarpel and Duarte (2019), which was intended to map the risk around the defensive zone, thus allowing the optimization of the attack, in terms of choosing the direction of attack and aircraft flight formation. Thus, in the present work, a representative metamodel of a function that estimates the probability of an attack aircraft being shot down by an anti-aircraft gun was built, as a function of its distance to the anti-aircraft gun and its flight height above the ground. The tactical scenario was implemented using a software developed for military simulation FLAMES. A design for the computational experiment was created, selecting the points to be simulated, in terms of distance and height of flight, chosen according to a space filling Latin Hyper Cube Design. After the experiment was carried out, the raw data were processed and some points were verified in terms of the convergence of the mean lethality frequency, to adjust the number of simulation runs performed. After obtaining the results of the computational experiment, 70% of the processed data were used to perform a mathematical interpolation via Kriging and Natural Neighbour Interpolation to obtain the metamodel, which was then evaluated with the remaining 30% of the data to verify the quality of the fit of the metamodel obtained.
Aircraft loss in ground attack missions remains the predominant form of attrition in military air operations, accounting for four-fifths of aircraft losses in the 1990 Gulf War. Several military powers seek to mitigate these losses through development and improvement of combat tactics by employing operational research techniques, especially after the advent of unmanned attack aircraft. In this context, this work focuses on the issue of penetration of defensive zones composed of anti-aircraft guns by attack aircraft, seeking to complement the method developed by Scarpel and Duarte (2019), which was intended to map the risk around the defensive zone, thus allowing the optimization of the attack, in terms of choosing the direction of attack and aircraft flight formation. Thus, in the present work, a representative metamodel of a function that estimates the probability of an attack aircraft being shot down by an anti-aircraft gun was built, as a function of its distance to the anti-aircraft gun and its flight height above the ground. The tactical scenario was implemented using a software developed for military simulation FLAMES. A design for the computational experiment was created, selecting the points to be simulated, in terms of distance and height of flight, chosen according to a space filling Latin Hyper Cube Design. After the experiment was carried out, the raw data were processed and some points were verified in terms of the convergence of the mean lethality frequency, to adjust the number of simulation runs performed. After obtaining the results of the computational experiment, 70% of the processed data were used to perform a mathematical interpolation via Kriging and Natural Neighbour Interpolation to obtain the metamodel, which was then evaluated with the remaining 30% of the data to verify the quality of the fit of the metamodel obtained.
Descrição
Citação
DUARTE, Gieser Augusto Rauber.Metamodeling the estimated Pk (Probability of kill) of an anti-aircraft gun shoot down an attack aircraft according to distance. 2022.100f. Dissertation of Master of Science – Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica and Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São José dos Campos.