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    Avaliação e estimativa da receita bruta do café arábica e potencialidades de diversificação e expçoração de novos nichos de mercado como estratégia competitiva
    (Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), 2015-08-31) Marques, Alessandro Lucio [UNIFESP]; Dias, Alvaro Machado [UNIFESP]; Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
    Objective: To analyze the agricultural policy of the national Arabica coffee and compare with the policies adopted by the major importers and estimate the Arabian gross revenue based on prices and national production. As well as researching problems of overproduction and high financing cost. Methods: It used data from Conab and Cepea / Esalq and Abic to form simple regressions for producer prices by state and national aggregate, applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov adherence test. Estimated prices, they composed together with the production and the annualized gross monthly income through multiple regression for the main units of the federation as a management alternative level of government. Results: After the estimation of revenue, it was observed that prices behaved in the variability proposal as adhesion test. So the result of gross revenues, contributed to form, in a management capacity and production planning, an aggregate variable that makes up the development of production and prices of the producing states and Brazil. It has also noted that the typical positive and negative bienalidades culture throughout history have not increased the impact of coffee blockbusters. Another observation is that in periods of overproduction exporter of coffee sector was more active and equalized distortions of market prices. Final Thoughts: The variable gross revenue of Arabica coffee is measured at the aggregate level, for her the Brazilian government can be oriented both in search of an optimal level of production, expanding it or retracting. The Arabic culture with the exporter bias needs a policy for the domestic export sector so that culture not be so dependent on a single export product - the coffee green beans. Therefore, the government needs to pursue a policy of adequate credit and minimum prices, it is removing part of the cost of funding and allocate more investment funding resources in order to contribute to the coffee agribusiness, because with technical development, management and technological arise expansion potential of the consumer market for roasted and soluble coffee