Eventos climáticos no Rio Grande do Sul e sua relação com o seguro de ramos elementares
Data
2021-08-12
Autores
Dias, Guilherme Graciano [UNIFESP]
Orientadores
Santos, Danilo Braun [UNIFESP]
Tipo
Trabalho de conclusão de curso de graduação
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Resumo
Neste trabalho vamos explorar os dados coletados pelo instituto nacional de metereologia (INMET) sobre quantidade de dias, volume de precipitação, temperatura e velocidade do vento e combinar com a base de sinistros de danos elétricos e vendaval de uma seguradora nas mesorregiões do estado do Rio Grande do Sul. O trabalho analisou a relação existente entre fenômenos climáticos e os sinistros para os ramos residencial, empresarial e condomínio de modo a traçar regressões lineares múltiplas com variáveis dependentes relacionadas aos fenômenos climatológicos no estado e posteriormente análise individual por regiões para entender o peso dessas variáveis no cálculo de frequência das coberturas para as seguradoras. Os resultados demostraram que os modelos propostos são relevantes ao indicar que variáveis como quantidade de precipitação e temperatura média influenciam as análises preditivas quanto a frequência de sinistros de danos elétricos para o estado e dias de precipitação, temperatura média e velocidade máxima e média dos ventos também colaboram na explicação da frequência de vendaval. Portanto, o estudo fornece ferramentas para auxíliar na precificação e atenuação de possíveis prejuízos das companhias de seguro.
In this paper we will explore the data collected by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) on the number of days and volume of precipitation, temperature, wind speed and combine them with the base of claims for electrical damage and windstorm of an insurance company in the mesoregions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The work analyzed the relationship between climatic phenomena and claims for the residential, business and condominium classes in order to plot multiple linear regressions with dependent variables related to climatological phenomena in the state and then individual analysis by region to understand the weight of these variables in the calculation of frequency of coverage for insurers. The results showed that the proposed models are relevant in indicating that variables such as precipitation amount and average temperature influence the predictive analyses regarding the frequency of electrical damage claims for the state, and days of precipitation, average temperature, and maximum and average wind speed also collaborate in explaining windstorm frequency. Therefore, the study provides tools to assist in pricing and mitigation of possible losses for insurance companies.
In this paper we will explore the data collected by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) on the number of days and volume of precipitation, temperature, wind speed and combine them with the base of claims for electrical damage and windstorm of an insurance company in the mesoregions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The work analyzed the relationship between climatic phenomena and claims for the residential, business and condominium classes in order to plot multiple linear regressions with dependent variables related to climatological phenomena in the state and then individual analysis by region to understand the weight of these variables in the calculation of frequency of coverage for insurers. The results showed that the proposed models are relevant in indicating that variables such as precipitation amount and average temperature influence the predictive analyses regarding the frequency of electrical damage claims for the state, and days of precipitation, average temperature, and maximum and average wind speed also collaborate in explaining windstorm frequency. Therefore, the study provides tools to assist in pricing and mitigation of possible losses for insurance companies.