Climate trends on the extreme winds in Brazil

dc.contributor.authorPes, Marcelo Pizzuti
dc.contributor.authorPereira, Enio Bueno
dc.contributor.authorMarengo, José Antonio
dc.contributor.authorMartins, Fernando Ramos [UNIFESP]
dc.contributor.authorHeinemann, Detlev
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Michael
dc.contributor.institutionUniversidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
dc.description.abstractThe main source of electricity in Brazil is from hydro, which has about 65.2% share of the country's electric energy matrix. However, over the last decade the wind energy increased from 19 MW to 2.2 GW. Since wind is an intermittent energy source, heavily determined by the weather and climatic conditions, and important effects on wind power generation can be expected in the mid and long term, in particular related to the impacts of extreme winds. The IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicates changes in wind speed at the surface in some regions of the world, and increased wind strength in mid-latitude regions. This study scrutinizes future scenarios of extreme winds in Brazil by applying trend analysis techniques on a 50-year historical series of observational wind speed and meteorological parameters at 10 m height in Brazil. Embracing techniques of cluster analysis it was possible to characterize six main regions with macro climatic similarities. To assess the goodness fit distribution, we designate two stations per homogenous region, taking as criteria the stations with better performance in the qualification process to determine the wind distribution pattern in each region applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS) and the lowest standard error (SE). After evaluating the frequency distribution of wind speed, the best fit result for the frequency distribution of maximum wind speed is the Gumbel model. The analysis of climatic trends performed by Mann-Kendall test revealed that in minimum wind speed series is not conclusive because it shows disparate results between homogeneous regions. On the other hand, the analysis of climatic trends of maximum wind speed presents 100% positive trends in Group#1, an equal number of stations with not significant trends and positive trends for Group#2, 36.8% more stations with positive trends than negative trends for Group#3 and 20% of stations with more negative trends than stations with positive trends for Group#4. This way, based in these results, is possible assert that there are an increase in the maximum extreme wind in Brazil, mainly in mid-latitudes. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.en
dc.description.affiliationEarth Syst Sci Ctr CCST, Natl Inst Space Res INPE, POB 515, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationNatl Ctr Early Warning & Monitoring Nat Disasters, Rodovia Dutra Km 39, BR-12630000 Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Sea Sci Dept, BR-11030400 Santos, SP, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationCarl von Ossietzky Univ Oldenburg, Inst Phys, Energy Meteorol, D-26111 Oldenburg, Lower Saxony, Germany
dc.description.affiliationUnifespUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Sea Sci Dept, BR-11030400 Santos, SP, Brazil
dc.description.sourceWeb of Science
dc.description.sponsorshipCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
dc.description.sponsorshipIDCAPES: 385375/2013-1
dc.description.sponsorshipIDINCT-MC: 381942/2014-1
dc.identifier.citationRenewable Energy. Oxford, v. 109, p. 110-120, 2017.
dc.publisherPergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
dc.relation.ispartofRenewable Energy
dc.rightsAcesso restrito
dc.subjectWind energyen
dc.subjectExtreme windsen
dc.subjectMann-Kendall testen
dc.subjectFrequency distributionsen
dc.subjectClimate trendsen
dc.subjectCluster analysisen
dc.titleClimate trends on the extreme winds in Brazilen