On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil

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dc.contributor.authorMassad, E.
dc.contributor.authorBurattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP]
dc.contributor.authorKhan, K.
dc.contributor.authorStruchiner, C. J.
dc.contributor.authorCoutinho, F. A. B.
dc.contributor.authorWilder-Smith, A.
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-19T11:49:56Z
dc.date.available2019-08-19T11:49:56Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractThe timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.en
dc.description.affiliationUniv São Paulo, Sch Med, São Paulo, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationLondon Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England
dc.description.affiliationUniv Fed São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationSt Michaels Hosp, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Inst, Toronto, ON, Canada
dc.description.affiliationFundação Oswaldo Cruz, Programme Sci Computat, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
dc.description.affiliationHeidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Heidelberg, Germany
dc.description.affiliationUmea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med Epidemiol & Global Hlth, SE-90185 Umea, Sweden
dc.description.affiliationNanyang Technol Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore, Singapore
dc.description.affiliationUnifespFederal University of São Paulo, EPM, Brazil
dc.description.sourceWeb of Science
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq
dc.description.sponsorshipZikaPLAN through the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme
dc.description.sponsorshipCanadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR)
dc.description.sponsorshipconsortium Canada-Latin/America-Caribbean Zika Virus Program
dc.description.sponsorshipLIM01-HCFMUSP
dc.description.sponsorshipIDZikaPLAN: 734584
dc.description.sponsorshipIDconsortium Canada-Latin/America-Caribbean Zika Virus Program: 372512
dc.format.extent2303-2312
dc.identifierhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268817001200
dc.identifier.citationEpidemiology And Infection. New York, v. 145, n. 11, p. 2303-2312, 2017.
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/S0950268817001200
dc.identifier.issn0950-2688
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/51438
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000409124100015
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherCambridge Univ Press
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.subjectForce of infectionen
dc.subjectFrench Polynesiaen
dc.subjectmathematical modelsen
dc.subjectrisken
dc.subjectZika virusen
dc.titleOn the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazilen
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
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