Navegando por Palavras-chave "mathematical models"

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    Magnitude and frequency variations of vector-borne infection outbreaks using the Ross-Macdonald model: explaining and predicting outbreaks of dengue fever
    (Cambridge Univ Press, 2016) Amaku, M.; Azevedo, F.; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP]; Coelho, G. E.; Coutinho, F. A. B.; Greenhalgh, D.; Lopez, L. F.; Motitsuki, R. S.; Wilder-Smith, A.; Massad, E.
    The classical Ross-Macdonald model is often utilized to model vector-borne infections
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    On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil
    (Cambridge Univ Press, 2017) Massad, E.; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP]; Khan, K.; Struchiner, C. J.; Coutinho, F. A. B.; Wilder-Smith, A.
    The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.
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    A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil
    (Fundaco Oswaldo Cruz, 2015-04-01) Ribeiro, Ana Freitas; Tengan, Cilea; Sato, Helena Keico; Spinola, Roberta; Mascheretti, Melissa; Costa Franca, Ana Cecilia; Port-Carvalho, Marcio; Pereira, Mariza; Souza, Renato Pereira de; Amaku, Marcos; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP]; Bezerra Coutinho, Francisco Antonio; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Massad, Eduardo; Ctr Vigilancia Epidemiol; Inst Florestal; Superintendencia Controle Endemias Estado Sao Paul; Adolfo Lutz Inst; Universidade de São Paulo (USP); Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP); Florida Int Univ; London Sch Hyg & Trop Med
    We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. the model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.
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    Study of the COVID-19 pandemic trending behavior in Israeli cities
    (International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC), 2021-11-02) Paiva, Henrique Mohallem [UNIFESP]; Afonso, Rubens Junqueira Magalhães; Sanches, Davi Gonçalves; Pelogia, Frederico José Ribeiro; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6901974057937430
    This paper studies the trending behavior of the COVID-19 dynamics in Israeli cities. The model employed is used to describe, for each city, the accumulated number of cases, the number of cases per day, and the predicted final number of cases. The innovative analysis adopted here is based on the daily evolution of the predicted final number of infections, estimated with data available until a given date. The results discussed here are illustrative for six cities in Israel, including Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. They show that the model employed fits well with the observed data and is able to suitably describe the COVID-19 dynamics in a country strongly impacted by the disease that holds one of the most successful vaccination programs in the world.