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Title: A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil
Authors: Ribeiro, Ana Freitas
Tengan, Cilea
Sato, Helena Keico
Spinola, Roberta
Mascheretti, Melissa
Costa Franca, Ana Cecilia
Port-Carvalho, Marcio
Pereira, Mariza
Souza, Renato Pereira de
Amaku, Marcos
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP]
Bezerra Coutinho, Francisco Antonio
Lopez, Luis Fernandez
Massad, Eduardo
Ctr Vigilancia Epidemiol
Inst Florestal
Superintendencia Controle Endemias Estado Sao Paul
Adolfo Lutz Inst
Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
Florida Int Univ
London Sch Hyg & Trop Med
Keywords: yellow fever
mathematical models
risk estimation
Issue Date: 1-Apr-2015
Publisher: Fundaco Oswaldo Cruz
Citation: Memorias Do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Rio de Janeiro, Rj: Fundaco Oswaldo Cruz, v. 110, n. 2, p. 230-234, 2015.
Abstract: We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. the model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.
ISSN: 0074-0276
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