The time course of weather-related deaths

The time course of weather-related deaths

Author Braga, Alfésio Luís Ferreira Autor UNIFESP Google Scholar
Zanobetti, A. Google Scholar
Schwartz, J. Google Scholar
Institution Harvard Univ
Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Abstract We carried out time-series analysis in 12 U.S. cities to estimate both the acute effects and the lagged influence of weather on total daily deaths. We fit generalized additive Poisson regressions for each city using nonparametric smooth functions to control for long time trend and barometric pressure. We also controlled for day of the week. We estimated the effect and the lag structure of both temperature and humidity on the basis of a distributed lag model. In cold cities, both high and low temperatures were associated with increased deaths. In general, the effect of cold temperatures persisted for days, whereas the effect of high temperatures was restricted to the day of the death or the immediately preceding day and was twice as large as the cold effect. The hot temperature effect appears to be primarily harvesting. In hot cities, neither hot nor cold temperatures had much effect on deaths. The magnitude of the effect of hot temperature varied with central air conditioning use and the variance of summertime temperatures. We saw no clear pattern for humidity effect. These dissimilarities indicate that analysis of the impact of any climatic change should take into account regional weather differences and harvesting.
Keywords total deaths
time series
distributed lag
meta analysis
Language English
Date 2001-11-01
Published in Epidemiology. Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, v. 12, n. 6, p. 662-667, 2001.
ISSN 1044-3983 (Sherpa/Romeo, impact factor)
Publisher Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Extent 662-667
Access rights Open access Open Access
Type Article
Web of Science ID WOS:000171736500013

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