Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Author Massad, Eduardo Google Scholar
Wilder-Smith, Annelies Google Scholar
Ximenes, Raphael Google Scholar
Amaku, Marcos Google Scholar
Lopez, Luis Fernandez Google Scholar
Bezerra Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Google Scholar
Coelho, Giovanini Evelim Google Scholar
Silva, Jarbas Barbosa da Google Scholar
Struchiner, Claudio Jose Google Scholar
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento Autor UNIFESP Google Scholar
Institution Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
London Sch Hyg & Trop Med
Nanyang Univ
Florida Int Univ
Minist Saude
Fiocruz MS
Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
Abstract Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup T, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.
Keywords dengue
risk
foreign travellers
probabilistic
modelling
World Cup
Language English
Sponsor FNS-SVS
MS
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
LIM01-HCFMUSP
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
DengueTools/Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community
Grant number MS: 27835/2012
DengueTools/Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community: 282589
Date 2014-05-01
Published in Memorias Do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Rio de Janeiro, Rj: Fundaco Oswaldo Cruz, v. 109, n. 3, p. 394-+, 2014.
ISSN 0074-0276 (Sherpa/Romeo, impact factor)
Publisher Fundaco Oswaldo Cruz
Extent 394-+
Origin http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0074-0276140133
Access rights Open access Open Access
Type Editorial
Web of Science ID WOS:000337909100022
SciELO ID S0074-02762014000300394 (statistics in SciELO)
URI http://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/37697

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