Liver Re-Transplantation: Internal Validation of a Predictive Mathematical Model of Survival

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dc.contributor.author Mattos, Rogerio Obregon de [UNIFESP]
dc.contributor.author Linhares, Marcelo Moura [UNIFESP]
dc.contributor.author Matos, Delcio [UNIFESP]
dc.contributor.author Adam, Rene
dc.contributor.author Bismuth, Henri
dc.contributor.author Castaing, Denis
dc.contributor.author Azoulay, Daniel
dc.date.accessioned 2016-01-24T14:27:21Z
dc.date.available 2016-01-24T14:27:21Z
dc.date.issued 2012-06-01
dc.identifier.citation Hepato-gastroenterology. Athens: H G E Update Medical Publishing S A, v. 59, n. 116, p. 1230-1233, 2012.
dc.identifier.issn 0172-6390
dc.identifier.uri http://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/34987
dc.description.abstract Background/Aims: Because of the worse results from re-transplantation, a model for determining the long-term survival has been previously developed. Its effectiveness had to be tested and validated, as proposed in this study, using a different sample population than the one used to build it. Methodology: Age, recipient creatinine, urgency of re-transplantation, interval between primary liver transplant and re-transplantation (RETx) of 92 patients that received first liver RETx, from a different sample of patients, in a different time period than those used to develop the initial model. the proposed mathematical model was used to predict survival at six months after undergoing liver RETx. We compared the areas under the ROC curves (AROC) corresponding to the two independent samples (derivation and validation samples). By the log-rank technique, the survival curves were also compared and classified into tertiles according to the risk scores of the original model: high risk (>32), medium risk (24-32) and low risk (<24). Results: Age, creatinine, time between primary liver transplant and re-transplantation and the urgency with which patients were enrolled, had comparable survival curves among the derivation and validation samples. When comparing the AROC of the derivation (0.733) and validation (0.741) samples, there was no statistically significant difference (p=0.915), therefore sensitivity and specificity ratios between the two are similar. Conclusions: This study made it possible to internally validate the original model for predicting survival at six months after undergoing liver RETx, although an external validation still needs to be done. en
dc.format.extent 1230-1233
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher H G E Update Medical Publishing S A
dc.relation.ispartof Hepato-gastroenterology
dc.rights Acesso restrito
dc.subject Liver re-transplantation en
dc.subject Validation model en
dc.subject Survival model en
dc.subject Survival rate en
dc.title Liver Re-Transplantation: Internal Validation of a Predictive Mathematical Model of Survival en
dc.type Artigo
dc.contributor.institution Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
dc.contributor.institution Hop Paul Brousse
dc.contributor.institution Univ Paris 11
dc.description.affiliation Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Surg Gastroenterol, BR-04039002 São Paulo, Brazil
dc.description.affiliation Hop Paul Brousse, Assitance Publ Hop Paris, Hepatobiliary Ctr, Villejuif, France
dc.description.affiliation Univ Paris 11, Villejuif, France
dc.description.affiliationUnifesp Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Surg Gastroenterol, BR-04039002 São Paulo, Brazil
dc.identifier.doi 10.5754/hge11719
dc.description.source Web of Science
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000305447400061



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