Liver Re-Transplantation: Internal Validation of a Predictive Mathematical Model of Survival

Liver Re-Transplantation: Internal Validation of a Predictive Mathematical Model of Survival

Author Mattos, Rogerio Obregon de Autor UNIFESP Google Scholar
Linhares, Marcelo Moura Autor UNIFESP Google Scholar
Matos, Delcio Autor UNIFESP Google Scholar
Adam, Rene Google Scholar
Bismuth, Henri Google Scholar
Castaing, Denis Google Scholar
Azoulay, Daniel Google Scholar
Institution Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)
Hop Paul Brousse
Univ Paris 11
Abstract Background/Aims: Because of the worse results from re-transplantation, a model for determining the long-term survival has been previously developed. Its effectiveness had to be tested and validated, as proposed in this study, using a different sample population than the one used to build it. Methodology: Age, recipient creatinine, urgency of re-transplantation, interval between primary liver transplant and re-transplantation (RETx) of 92 patients that received first liver RETx, from a different sample of patients, in a different time period than those used to develop the initial model. the proposed mathematical model was used to predict survival at six months after undergoing liver RETx. We compared the areas under the ROC curves (AROC) corresponding to the two independent samples (derivation and validation samples). By the log-rank technique, the survival curves were also compared and classified into tertiles according to the risk scores of the original model: high risk (>32), medium risk (24-32) and low risk (<24). Results: Age, creatinine, time between primary liver transplant and re-transplantation and the urgency with which patients were enrolled, had comparable survival curves among the derivation and validation samples. When comparing the AROC of the derivation (0.733) and validation (0.741) samples, there was no statistically significant difference (p=0.915), therefore sensitivity and specificity ratios between the two are similar. Conclusions: This study made it possible to internally validate the original model for predicting survival at six months after undergoing liver RETx, although an external validation still needs to be done.
Keywords Liver re-transplantation
Validation model
Survival model
Survival rate
Language English
Date 2012-06-01
Published in Hepato-gastroenterology. Athens: H G E Update Medical Publishing S A, v. 59, n. 116, p. 1230-1233, 2012.
ISSN 0172-6390 (Sherpa/Romeo, impact factor)
Publisher H G E Update Medical Publishing S A
Extent 1230-1233
Access rights Closed access
Type Article
Web of Science ID WOS:000305447400061
URI http://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/34987

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